The Pariah: Syria Continues to Isolate Itself

The Arab League recently announced unprecedented economic sanctions against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for its violent and sustained crackdown on protestors, a move aimed at severing trade and investment between Syria and the greater Arab world. This follows sanctions already in place by the European Union and the United States. The sanctions by the Arab League, consisting of 19 member states, reflected a widespread frustration with Damascus and its inability to put into effect a peace treaty it accepted three weeks ago. Syria’s refusal to admit Arab civilian and military observers to oversee the peace agreement has enabled a military crackdown that the United Nations says has claimed more than 3,500 lives since March.

Assad has rebuffed any attempts to pressure Syria, claiming “national sovereignty” as the unequivocal defense. Still, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced Assad while urging the world to focus on the plight of the Syrian people. E.U.’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, repeated calls for Assad to step down from power.

Turkey threw its support behind the sanctions. “Nobody can expect Turkey and the Arab League to remain silent on the killings of civilians and the Syrian regime’s increasing oppression of innocent people,” said Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

The Arab League sanctions include a travel ban against senior officials from the as-Assad regime, a prohibition on central bank transactions, a freeze on Syrian government assets located in Arab countries, and a halt to any commercial transactions. To diminish the impact on ordinary Syrians, exceptions are made for critical consumer goods.

Iraq abstained from the vote and Lebanon “disassociated” itself from the Arab League resolution.

The impact of the resolution may be pronounced: approximately 50 percent of Syria’s exports go to the Arab world and 25 percent of its imports originate from the Arab world. Iran and Russia however, may likely provide aid to Syria to compensate it for lost government revenues, perhaps undercutting the impact of sanctions.

In the face of mass Arab revolts against unpopular dictators, Syria now stands as an international pariah, unable to muster support from even its Arab brethren to maintain its stronghold over the people. The fall of Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya is telling enough of how the will of the people ultimately reigns over the tyrannical ways of despots who rule through fear. The violence against the Syrian people however is astonishing. Brutal killings, sectarian-fueled murder, mass graves and torture of peaceful protestors have become characteristic of Assad’s response. Assad continues to isolate himself, which will be exacerbated by economic sanctions on multiple fronts. Germany, France and Britain are submitting a draft U.N. resolution condemning the Syrian government’s actions. Diplomats from Arab countries are considering supporting the resolution as well.

Russia is opposed to any U.N. or international intervention, calling instead for dialogue. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, voiced his concerns over a potential civil war, which may be likely. Russia has a strong trading relationship Syria, having sold $3.8 billion of weapons to Syria last year, which is providing al-Assad the ammunition needed. The question becomes whether the international community, particularly NATO, has the political will to intervene to assist the opposition. China remains suspicious of U.N. intervention, and will certainly oppose any military strike against Assad’s regime, diminishing the possibility of a passable U.N. resolution.

Still, al-Assad’s campaign to jail and torture thousands of civilians and crush peaceful protests will only last so long. It is only a matter of time before the Syrian dictator is faced with a choice: cede power immediately and answer for his crimes under international law, or leave his fate, much like Qaddafi, to the will of his people.

- Sheheryar Sardar, The BroadStreet Times